With the three top publicly traded cable operators expected to report second quarter results later this week, all eyes will be on whether the slowdown in broadband subscriber growth will be larger than, less than or equal to expectations.
Cable broadband growth broke records in 2020, as the pandemic forced most Americans to work from home and buy faster and faster tiers of service. The expansion of streaming video, as services like Disney Plus, HBO Max, Paramount Plus and Discovery Plus chewed up bandwidth normally occupied by SVOD stalwarts like Netflix, Amazon Prime Video and Hulu, also increased demand.
When the dust cleared, cable operators added about 5.6 million broadband customers in 2020, more than double the 2.5 million added in the previous year. Most operators warned that subscriber growth would slow this year and probably next, most likely to 2019 levels. That appeared to hold true in the first quarter, when total cable broadband additions were about 3.8 million, according to Wells Fargo Securities media analyst Steven Cahall.
In a research note, Cahall added that as Q2 is usually a seasonally weaker period, overall broadband growth is expected to be at about 0.6%. He noted that while this is a 400 basis point decline from the previous quarter, it would still be the highest Q2 growth rate in five years (excluding 2020).
Cahall is one of the more bullish analysts regarding broadband growth, noting that the segment outpaced expectations in the first quarter, as many operators said trends associated with COVID-19 continued. While Cahall still expects a deceleration in growth for the full year in 2021 (3.5%, compared to 5.6% in 2020), he notes it is still higher than the growth rate in the prior four years.
“Commentary from most of our covered companies suggests subscriber gains similar to 2019 levels, with a back-half weighted growth profile,” Cahall wrote.
Altice USA is the first major publicly traded operator out of the box, expected to report its Q2 results on July 28 after the market closes. Analysts are expecting the operator to add between 10,000 and 28,000 broadband customers in the quarter, compared to Q1 2021, when it signed on about 12,000 high-speed internet customers.
Altice USA, which operates as Optimum in its East Coast markets and as Suddenlink Communications in the Midwest, has some of the highest broadband penetration rates in the industry, which has limited its subscriber growth in the past. Earlier this month the company said it would rebrand its wireless service as Optimum Mobile across all of its systems, a move it said was the first step in rebranding all of its products under the Optimum name.
Also Read: Analyst: After a Strong 2021, Cable’s Broadband Trajectory Could Reverse in 2022
At Comcast, which is scheduled to report its Q2 results on the morning of July 29, analysts believe that broadband additions could come in at nearly half the level the company reached in Q1. Cahall estimates that Comcast will add about 260,000 residential broadband customers in Q2, while Evercore ISI Group media analyst Vijay Jayant and Bernstein media analyst Peter Supinio are in agreement that Comcast should add about 275,000 residential and commercial broadband customers in the period. Still, that’s nearly half the 461,000 residential and commercial additions the company added in Q1.
Charter is expected to release its Q2 results on July 30, and Supino, who downgraded the stock to “market perform” on July 12, expects the nation’s second largest cable operator to add about 250,000 broadband customers. That is about in line with Cahall’s estimate of 246,000 additions. Jayant predicts the company will add about 265,000 high-speed data customers in the period.
For the full year, analysts are pretty much in agreement that growth will be slower than in 2020, with some predicting it could be even less than in 2019.
MoffettNathanson expects the top three operators to add about 2.4 million broadband customers in 2021, around half a million subscribers behind the 2.9 million they added in 2019. Supino estimated that overall growth would be about 2.7 million. Supino predicted that Charter would have the biggest drop in growth over the next two years -- he estimated the company would add about 1 million broadband subscribers in 2022 and under 1 million in 2023 -- spurred by expected increased regulatory scrutiny and stepped up competition from AT&T and T-Mobile.
T-Mobile has said it expects to add 7 million to 8 million 5G wireless broadband customers by 2025, implying additions of about 1.5 million annually. While Supino wrote that wireless broadband can’t match fiber-to-the-home, he believes a new segment is emerging in the market.
“Consumer markets naturally segment ‘good, better, best,’" Supino wrote. “Historically, the enormous up-front capital costs and logistical challenges of supply growth have inhibited the segmentation of the broadband market. We believe the natural segmentation of the broadband market will provide more consumers with an opportunity to pay a lower price for ‘good enough’ broadband.”
