Cable ad-sales executives said the current boom should continue through year's end. Beyond then, however, the crystal ball gets cloudy.
Sales growth in the opening half of the year grew between roughly 35 percent at Time Warner Cable and the New York Interconnect to 50 percent at Adlink in Los Angeles.
The New York Interconnect's second-quarter take rose 43 percent and its first half climbed "around 37 percent or 38 percent" to run well ahead of budget, vice president and general manager Eglon Simons said.
On the West Coast, sales for Adlink, the Los Angeles interconnect, soared 51 percent in the opening half to surpass budget by 21 percent, vice president of marketing and communications Vicki Lins said. In the second quarter, sales jumped 41 percent.
General manager Wayne Hindmarsh of AdNex Detroit said his interconnect's second quarter and first half were both "very good and well beyond our budgets," but could not offer percentages.
Time Warner Cable vice president of ad sales Larry Zipin said: "We're having a great year, although the second quarter is typically softer. Our business does follow a seasonal pattern and one seasonal dip that generally occurs is in June. The important thing is that we stayed ahead of last year."
Officially, the second quarter notched a 15 percent uptick, Zipin said, while the opening half posted a 35 percent increase-both ahead of plan. Adjusting for various acquisitions and swaps, "same-store" data showed first-half growth at closer to 25 percent.
Cable One Inc. vice president of ad sales Ron Pancratz said the first half finished well over plan, but the second quarter "was not quite as strong as the first."
As for categories driving year-to-date growth, most executives reeled off a list of usual suspects.
In automotive, Simons said, strong spending by Ford Motor Co. and such imports as Daimler-Chrysler AG's Mercedes-Benz and BMW AG offset reduced spending by General Motors Corp.
Dot-com and Internet-related accounts include Cisco Systems Inc. and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette Inc.'s DLJ Direct. The latter spans the financial and dot-com segments, he added.
The interconnect sold 70 new advertisers last year, Simons said. "I feel more comfortable when business is spread across so many categories and clients," rather than overly reliant on automotive, which once was the case, he added.
Strong categories for Adlink include the Internet business, which spent nearly $5 million with the interconnect in the first half, as well as automotive, restaurants, travel and recreation, Lins noted. Adlink also gained two new clients in the health sector.
Hindmarsh cited media as a standout category and said the Motown interconnect "got a bit more dot-com business" than a year ago, although he added, "I'm not sure that's a long-term business."
In general, automotive continues to be a major category for MSOs and interconnects. Comcast Corp. senior vice president of national ad sales Roger Sverdlik cited automotive as strong. He also countered published reports that indicated the high-tech/dot-com category has slowed considerably. "We see that business growing," Sverdlik said.
Pancratz said strength ran pretty much across the board. The one disappointment: political campaign ads.
Looking ahead, Simons said, the New York Interconnect's third quarter is running 76 percent ahead of a year ago, with July alone-a five-week month, versus four weeks in 1999-ahead 80 percent.
One trend is that "we're getting commitments earlier" from clients, which enables Simons' staff to better manage inventory. That's especially important this year, with the Summer Olympic Games set for September and Campaign 2000 buys likely to heat up in the fall, reducing fourth-quarter inventory.
Simons said it was hard to gauge the Olympics' impact. "The Olympics can suck a lot of money out of the market," he added. But competitors to Olympics sponsors will be looking to offset rivals' high profiles.
Lins and Sverdlik also agreed that the year was looking good. Sverdlik said he saw an upward trend for the rest of the year, helped by the Philadelphia Interconnect's becoming hardwired in mid-July. That operation has since been renamed Comcast Market-Link Philadelphia.
At Time Warner, the third quarter is starting to heat up already, said Zipin, who is banking on strong back-to-school retail business and an improvement in political spending.
Although his MSO is among those that have yet to win significant political business, Zipin expected the U.S. Senate race between Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton and Republican Rick Lazio in New York to generate heavy spending between now and November.
"If I have any concern at all, it's about the general health of the economy," he said. If Federal Reserve Board interest-rate decisions slow the economy to the point where consumer confidence cools, he added, "retailers tend to get conservative about advertising. I've seen that ebb and flow [in years past]."
Automotive and financial services would be among the sectors "immediately affected" by such developments, he noted.
AdNex's third quarter is "pacing to at least hit budget," Hindmarsh said.
South Florida Cable Advertising general manager Charlie Slaight said the third and final quarters look "pretty good," with the Olympics and political ads tightening inventory.
However, he added: "Next year is a different story, with a new administration. It could be a little more challenging in 2001."
Some MSOs, including AT & T Broadband and Charter Communications Inc., said sales data had not yet been fully tabulated.
