MoffettNathanson media analyst Craig Moffett has raised the odds to 90% on the Charter-Time Warner Cable deal getting done.
In a note to investors Thursday (Jan. 28), Moffett said that even with the launch of the Stop Mega Cable Coalition last week, he believes most of its members were looking for conditions rather than expecting to block the deal.
He conceded hurdles remained, including clearing a California Public Utilities Commission process -- it held a public hearing on the deal this week -- that had a tedious timeline, but he said for all that, he sees the stumbling blocks as getting smaller.
One of the big plusses, Moffett said, is that Netflix is on board with this deal, contrasted with its vocal opposition to the Comcast play for TWC.
Netflix is enthusiastic about Charter's settlement-free peering policy and extending it to TWC.
Given that OTT impact was what scuttled the Comcast deal, Moffett said, Netflix's support "speaks volumes," and Charter's OTT-friendly track record clearly works in its favor.
