One of the largest media buying agencies is expecting double-digit
price increases for TV advertising in this year's upfront market.
In a new forecast, ZenithOptimedia increased its prediction for
broadcast network TV spending in 2011 to 3% from 2%. (The media buyer also
expects increases of 2% in 2012 and 1% in 2013.)
With strong demand coming from the auto, telecom and banking
industries, "prices are expected to show double-digit increases in the May
upfront," the ZenithOptimedia report says. Last year the broadcasters'
increases were in the high single-digit range. "Considering that this year's
scatter market is around 25% to 40% higher than the upfront pricing,
significant increases in this year's upfront are to be expected."
For cable TV, ZenithOptimedia forecasts spending to grow 10% in 2011,
8% in 2012 and 7% in 2013.
"Most cable networks are expected to show double-digit growth in the
upfront over last year, with a revitalized auto market pumping hundreds of
millions of added marketing dollars into TV," ZenithOptimedia says.
Syndication is expected to decrease 2% in 2011, according to ZenithOptimedia,
and then fall by another 8% in 2013.
ZenithOptimedia notes
that Oprah's last season ends in
2011. "Oprah's departure will further diminish the supply of top-tier,
high-rated syndicated offerings, as no other syndicated talk-show host garners
the same kind of ratings, or has the same kind of impact that she does, the
forecast says.
ZenithOptimedia expects spot TV to show a 4%
increase in 2011, a 6% gain in the 2012 election year and 2% in 2013.
